‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Availability.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are turning to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and authorities say cylinders are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

Approximately a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the war.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being prioritised for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been sparked by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.