A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
