Just two months prior when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
